What global warming really means

So what does 3 degrees of global warming mean for Australia?

The National Climate Risk Assessment has just com out. The Climate Council put together a great summary of the report. It's not pretty.

Today is Earth Overshoot Day

Yes it would be great if humanity just used resources at the rate the earth can produce them. But we don't. We use way more.

At the current rate, by August 1 we consume a year's worth of Earth's resources. This would be OK if we had 1.75 Earths - but we don't.

What's worse is that they've also calculated the Earth Overshoot day, and how many earths we'd need, based on the consumption of each country. 

If everyone consumed like Australians, we'd need 4.7 Earths (our overshoot day would be 5 April). For the USA it's 5 Earths (an overshoot day of 14 March).

Click the images for larger size versions, or see more graphics on Overshoot Day.

EV Subsidy for Second-hand Electric Vehicles

Have I mentioned GoodCar before? This company imports second-hand electric vehicles from Japan to Australia, so that we have more affordable options than buying new.

This month they have launched their own GoodCar $3,000 EV subsidy, which can be subtracted from their already-low prices. 

As I write this, their cheapest EV is $19,000, is in 5-star condition, and has just 13,000 kms on it. Check out their range.

Combined with the running-cost savings of thousands of dollars year after year, switching to an electric vehicle has become a very viable option. GoodCar say charging an electric car is like filling your tank for $10. (Calculate your savings here)

The subsidy runs out on 20 October 2023.

Want the subsidy to be ongoing? Sign the petition

Goodcar are funding this subsidy out of their own pocket, and believe government's should help everyday Australians purchase second-hand electric cars - not just wealthier Australians get brand-new ones. If you agree, why not sign their petition.

Carbon World Cup

How will Australia go in this year's World Cup? That's the big sporting question in Australia at the moment. Other teams in Australia's group are France, Denmark and Tunisia. Statistically, Australia should probably lose all three games.

If the game was carbon pollution, Australia would be the highest scorer by far. Our nation out-pollutes Denmark by 3 to 1, France 4 to 1 and Tunisia 6 to 1. Those scores would be great in soccer, but in climate change they are terrible for Australia - and for the world.

In fact in the hole tournament, the only country that could match us would be host nation Qatar. That's the level Australia is at. As a nation we've got a lot of improving to do - and I don't mean in soccer.

See how your nation compares

What's with these power price rises?

There's been a lot of talk about power price rises here in Australia. So what's causing it?

Short answer: Old coal-fired power stations that keep breaking down.

In detailed terms, here's a chart from finance reporter Elysse Morgan, showing the power output of AGL's coal-fired power stations over the last month or so.

The purple line at the top is what they would normally be producing - if the stations were all functional, and not having "unplanned outages". The difference is around a million homes.

Of course the electricity grid normally makes up for this shortfall by having gas-fired power stations operate as a backup. But this is quite expensive. Perhaps because the shortage is so large. Perhaps because the gas price (globally) is so high at the moment. Perhaps a combination of the two.

The result is that energy costs more, as shown in this graph of energy prices in the states of Queensland (QLD) and Victoria (VIC).

Elysse Morgan points out that Western Australia (WA), as a gas-exporting state, requires companies to provide gas for WA first (at a fixed price).

As a sidenote she also points out that renewables like wind and solar also have a stable and low per-unit cost - as the power source is free.

Ah, if only we'd built more of that earlier. 

Wasn't 2020 bad enough? (without breaking climate records too)

2020 will be remembered for different things - but it was also yet another stinker of a year from a climate perspective.

2020 was the second hottest year on record - just 0.02 degrees Celsius behind 2016's record. That's virtually a dead heat. In Europe and Asia 2020 actually was the warmest year on record.

This is a bit worrying considering that in weather terms it's a La Nina year - meaning that it's cooler than we would otherwise expect.

In the bigger picture, the last seven years (2014 - 2020) are the seven hottest since records began (in 1880).

The ten hottest years have all occurred since 2005.

More worrying still is that many people I know weren't even born the last time we had a regular-temperature year.

Further fascinating graphs

I've done a number of these posts over the years - and it's scary how each record-breaking change in climate change is surpassed by another (as you can see on the above graph). Here are my posts for the years 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2017.

Alan Kohler and climate change

Usually the finance guy on the news shows charts of interest rates, inflation, company performance and sharemarket movements. So it was a little bit surprising to see this last night.

It comes from the latest IPCC report. You can read more about that here and here. But the basics are that we are likely to exceed 1.5 degrees of warming (considered the upper limit of what would be a "viable" society) by 2030.

For Australia this means "fires are projected to get worse and more frequent, and fire seasons will last longer. In eastern Australia, if warming exceeds 2C, then droughts are projected to increase. Across southern Australia drought has already increased, and projections suggest that will worsen."

So why is this on the finance report?

I did some digging and finance journalist Alan Kohler has doing a fair bit of research in this area.

He wrote an article about Australian businesses that are taking advantage of the move to electric vehicles, and the massive drop in the cost of renewable energy.

He's also written an article titled Australia's solar tsunami to trigger coal collapse - explaining how inflexible coal-fired power stations are on the brink of being unprofitable and closing. That's another business story, similar to the way Netflix made Blockbuster unviable.

Business is about managing risks

More recently Alan Kohler has written about how Australia manages risk. When a vaccine has a 0.0011% chance of a side effect we take steps to avoid that risk. But when a country faces a risk (climate change) that is hundreds of times more likely we seem to do nothing.

He says that a "4 degree rise in the average global temperature would make large parts of the planet uninhabitable and lead to the total collapse of the banking system."

Even if we avoid that, a mere 2 degrees of warming (which is still quite likely) would mean "the banking system barely survives".

It seems that climate change information should be very important to the finance community. And all of us.

PS. Zooming in on that graph (and the current steep slope) it looks like we need to get serious about putting the brakes on pretty soon - if we're going to have any chance of keeping under 1.5 or even 2 degrees.

Australia sinks island hopes

At the recent Pacific Island Forum, Australia has appeared to prefer burning coal to saving lives

The leaders of the Small Island States had all agreed to a declaration for stronger action on climate change. Perhaps not surprising considering these nations' future existence is at stake. But then Australia stepped in.

Instead of giving them what they need (action on climate change) Australia gave them foreign aid money. Cartoonist Cath Wilcox illustrated how (not) useful that is.

And even worse, it's not extra money - it's been redirected away from other foreign aid programs.so orther worthy programs no have to go without.

So basically Australia, having heard that climate is the biggest issue for all these Pacific Island nations is not giving one extra dollar and not reducing pollution by one single gram.

Back in Australia, the Deputy (and acting) Prime Minister made some bizarre remarks about fruit-picking, and also,

“I also get a little bit annoyed when we have people in those sorts of countries pointing the finger at Australia and say we should be shutting down all our resources sector so that, you know, they will continue to survive,”

Two things here. First is the exaggeration/lie about what was being asked - it was only ever about coal. Second is the display of priorities where he seems to be saying that a polluting industry is more important than people's lives - that he wants to continue burning and exporting coal forever - even if it wipes out several nations along the way. Stunning.

Climate Change: The Facts - by David Attenborough

If you missed last night's ABC screening of Climate Change: The Facts here's the link to see it on iview.

There's an explanation of climate change, it's impacts and what we can do to reduce it. Being a David Attenborough documentary it also contains some amazing footage:

• Australian bats littered on the ground after a heatwave, (perhaps turn away at that point if you're an animal lover)
• Dashcam footage as a father and son driving through a bushfire to escape it - only to realise that was impossible, (their escape was quite miraculous)
• Flames coming out of ice. This was a demonstration of the quantity of ice-trapped methane in the permafrost. When this permafrost melts (due to climate change) this methane will be released and cause even more climate change. This is what's called a tipping point.

There's also amazing stats:

• British heatwaves are 30 times more likely than in the 70's.
• Greenland is losing ice at 5 times the rate that it was just 25 years ago.
• The US state of Louisiana is losing land the size of a football field every 45 mins - due to sea level rise - and already people have had to abandon their homes.

Sometimes our tendency is to avoid change even when it's necessary. It's important to remember that the "cost of action is dwarfed by the cost of inaction".

Some more David:
David Attenborough's Great Barrier Reef

The Earth can't keep up

If you spend your whole year's income in 7 months, that's not good. That's what we're doing to the Earth.

Today (29 July 2019) is Earth Overshoot Day. That's the earliest it's ever been. Already this year we've used up a year's worth of natural resources. To put it another way, what we use in a year takes 1.7 years for the earth to regenerate.

It hasn't always been this bad

In 1970 the date was at the end of the year. We were using the exact amount of resources that Earth could replenish. Yes, there's more people today, but with our advanced technology and better choices we can get our of ecological debt.

Australia hasn't improved

If everyone behaved like Australians, we would need 4 Earths to sustain us. Our overshoot date is March 31 (same as last year) and is one of the worst. (Yes, the USA is still a bit worse).

Is your country not here?

See if you can find your country on this calendar. (The later your country's overshoot date, the better).

Global warming really is global

Local ABC news doesn't normally give international weather reports but this was an exception.

Europe is going through a heatwave. England is set to record it's highest temperature EVER.

Here in Brisbane, Australia, July is our coldest month. This July it looks like every day of the month will reach 20 degrees Celsius (68 Fahrenheit). That's happened only twice before - last year and once early in the 2000's. It never ever happened through all the 1900's.

Meanwhile the US has also been having heatwaves. Normally these affect the elderly quite badly, but this one claimed 32-year-old former SuperBowl player Mitch Petrus.

It's one thing to see a hot or cold day in one place, but when this is happening consistently all around the world we need to take action.

Yes, Australian voters want climate action

Since the Australian election some have been worried that Australian voters seem unconcerned about climate change. However, ABC's Vote Compass shows the opposite.

While not many people changed the party they vote for, they are ready for (and expect) more climate action.

How much should we do?

The proportion of people saying we should do more has reached an all-time high. Also, the number of undecideds has decreased each election.

Cross-party support

Across the four biggest parties, each party's supporters want more action rather than less. The highest are Greens (99-0) and Labor (96-0) supporters. A bit further back are Coalition supporters (59-13) and One Nation supporters (40-34).

Whilst some parties seem opposed to more action, every party's supporters think we should be doing more.

What about policies?

Renewable energy is immensely popular with 86% of people saying there should be more of it.

The price on carbon emissions was abandoned by the current government. Yet still 68% of people agree with the Greens policy to bring it back.

Electric cars are also a popular idea with 72% saying that the government should do more to increase the number of electric cars in Australia.

What does it mean?

Despite the increasing desire for action on climate change, the votes of all the parties remained almost identical to the last election. Perhaps people are sticking with their preferred party, but expecting them to do more.

It's interesting that we seem to be in favour of policies that politicians seems less keen to introduce. Will this be something they notice and begin to act upon? Or could this possible be the effect of political donations by companies that profit from polluting?

See the "Accelerate" documentary for free

The "Accelerate" documentary is now available to view for free! It's just under an hour, has featured at special screenings around the country and is now online for free.

The Accelerate documentary shows why we need climate action, and how collectively we can work together for a safe climate future.

Powershop - switch and save

We've recently switched our electricity provider to Powershop. I'm highly recommending it. Here are 8 reasons why it's a great choice.

Renewable energy makers

Whichever electricity retailer I choose, they're going to make a profit from me. I'd prefer that profit to go to a good company. Powershop is owned by Meridian Energy, which also makes renewable energy. That's the kind of company I like to support.

Greenest electricity provider

The Green Electricity Guide ranks electricity companies on their green credentials. This includes emissions from power stations they own, their policy positions on renewable energy and fossil fuels, their deals for solar consumers, and their promotion of energy efficiency.

Powershop tops the list every year and is one of only two companies with a 5-star rating.

Cheaper Electricity

Electricity costs are made up of two parts - the daily 'supply charge' and the 'usage rate'. Both of these are cheaper than our previous provider. Also, their pay-on-time discount applies to both areas. Other providers generally offer their discount only on the usage charge part of the bill.

To compare to your current provider, check out energymadeeasy.gov.au.

Extra "David-discount"

You won't see much advertising for Powershop. Instead of paying for TV ads, they just give the money to customers. What a great way to do business!

If you sign up with my special link you'll get $75 credit and so will I.

Top-ups

Powershop also does billing better. You can top-up your credit at any time (like a prepaid phone or a public transport card). You get a discount for doing this. For example you can buy $100 credit for just $85.

Smaller bills

Powershop bills monthly rather than quarterly. (Yay!) Apart from making it easier to budget for, it's also less of a shock because each bill is around one-third what you are used to paying. Powershop also lets you know a few days ahead of time, so you have a chance to double-check you have enough credit to cover the bill.

What about my solar panels?

The Energy Made Easy site doesn't really cater for solar households. You might have to compare the rates to your current bill. Generally their solar rates are good (part of their great environment score). Here's the link to check rates for your area.

What do other customers think?

Powershop is big in Victoria (their first state). Amongst its customers there it rates 5-stars in most categories and out-rates the major retailers by quite a margin.

Are there any negatives?

I know of only two possible negatives. The greenpower option is slightly more expensive (at least compared to my previous provider). However, as 100% Greenpower customers we found this small extra cost was offset by Powershop's great base prices. Even with our 100% Greenpower the overall cost was practically identical. The sign-on bonus was waaay more than the tiny difference in cost. We changed mostly to support a renewable energy company with better business practice. If you're not a purchaser of Greenpower, then you should have lower cost, and a sign-on bonus.

The only other thing is that your very first bill may be based on estimated usage. Powershop bills monthly, but physical readings are only done quarterly. So your first bill may seem bit low or high. This will even out once they've done a physical reading. Or you can choose to enter your own DIY meter readings via the website.

In summary

If you're looking for the cheapest deal, Powershop's a great choice.

If you're looking for the greenest electricity company, Powershop's a great choice.

If you'd like more for the solar power you export, Powershop's a great choice.

If you'd like to receive a sign-on bonus, Powershop's a great choice.

Here's my special link to get your $75 bonus credit.

Climate for Change

When the media and politics talk climate change there's we hear a lot about renewable energy versus coal. Fair enough, electricity does account for 34% of our country's emissions.

But what about the rest? ABC's Four Corners program did this documentary about Australia's emissions, where we are compared to the rest of the world, and what can be done to improve.

Here is my quick summary. You can also watch it online, or read the transcript.

Transport

19% of emissions
Transport emissions are growing because our population is growing and our demand for transport is increasing. Our vehicles are improving but not quickly enough to match our increased use.

We currently have no emission standard on vehicles. In the USA and Europe vehicles are more efficient and cheaper to run.

Some countries have already started phasing out petrol and diesel cars in favour of electric vehicles. Norway is the leader with 31% of new cars being electric. In Australia it's 0.2%.

Even in the UK, there are 29 affordable models of electric cars (under 60,000 AUD). Here in Australia we have 4.

Industry

30% of emissions
Australia is the world biggest exporter of natural gas (LNG). If the countries that buy this gas are burning it instead of coal, that's good for world emissions. But Australia's emissions are higher because of the energy used to extract, liquefy and transport it.

The industry's rate of improvement in energy use and carbon intensity is at the bottom of world standards. Why?

Australia has a 'baseline' system where big polluters are each given an emissions cap. If they exceed that cap they are penalised - at least in theory. One-third of big polluters have been allowed increase their cap. Emissions from these polluters is up 12% in the last four years.

The rules around changing the cap we changed last month. Bizarrely, they make increasing the pollution cap even easier.

Agriculture

15% of emissions
Agricultural emissions is usually a hard area to find reductions. There are a lot of methane emissions from livestock. However, Australia's science agency CSIRO has discovered a natural feed-additive that reduces livestock emissions to almost zero.

Electricity

34% of emissions
Electricity emissions are trending down as renewables replace coal and gas. Transgrid, the network operator in NSW say the last time they connected a coal power station to the grid was 1992. Wind and solar are very affordable now.

French company Neoen started in Australia in 2012, and now have built half their global capacity here. They say a long term goal is needed and that such a goal is not a burden but a certainty for investors.

At the moment 2/3 of Australia's power still comes from coal. These power stations are old and due to close. We need to start soon and do so in an orderly fashion, so that they don't all close at once.

Current Policies

The current government buys carbon reductions by giving money to projects that reduce emissions. Sounds good in theory, but there are two issues.

As discussed earlier, companies are being allowed increase their pollution so this "emissions reduction fund" is not reducing emissions, just trying to make up for industry's increase.

Secondly, some projects would still occur without the government funding. So we're spending money on projects that would happen anyway.

In short we're spending money we don't have to spend and emissions aren't reducing.

International commitments

So how will we meet our Paris target of a 26% reduction in emissions? The current government is looking to use "credits" from a previous time period where we met our targets.

One of the experts on the documentary said it's like failing your year 12 exams and trying to increase your mark because you got excellent results in year 8.

Also the Paris meeting was held in 2015. Next year all the nations gather again and are expected to improve their targets. The way we're going we can hardly reach the weak targets we currently have.

Conclusion

Despite Australia doing so poorly at the moment, there is much hope when we see what is possible. One of the experts has the opinion that "when the debate is over, the economy and people will move forward and take a lot of advantage". I'm looking forward to that.

Australia's hottest summer ever

We've had other hot summers but this one was at least 50% hotter than the previous record.

And it's obvious where the trend is going.

The Climate Council summarised this Angriest Summer with an infographic.

In my home state, Cloncurry had 43 consecutive days over 40°C (104F). That's a state record. In South Australia, Adelaide recorded 46.6°C (116F) - it's hottest ever temperature. Port Augusta took the title for the hottest temperature of the summer, with 49.5°C (121F).

I thought Autumn might bring some cool relief but even this week there's been two days of 36°C or more (97F). In Autumn.

Scientists are predicting a warm autumn too - and that's certainly been true so far.

Australians deserve the truth

The Australian government repeatedly tries to assure the public that we will meet our greenhouse target. But many are becoming very sceptical. Let's look at why.

What is our target

The target we set for ourselves, and committed to, is a 26% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 (compared to 2005 emissions). Yes it is a fairly weak target - taking a quarter of a century to do a quarter of the job - but that's a discussion for another day.

Today's question is whether we're doing anywhere near enough to get anywhere near it. Here are the government's own figures on emissions:

The start of the line is 2005 - the year we are comparing with. To reach our target, we have to get back to that level - and then another 26% below it. In just 10 years.

It's been 15 years so far and the only meaningful decrease was in the carbon price period. We'd need to do at least as well as that for the next decade to even get close.

So what are we doing?

The section marked "Emission Reduction Fund" seems to have no reductions at all and this is the policy the government wants to stick with (although with less annual funding).

It's no wonder that dozens of the country’s leading climate and energy experts have signed a joint statement stressing that without further action Australia will not meet its 2030 pollution reduction target.

Something needs to change. Big time. Otherwise we'll be far closer to 26% more emissions rather than 26% less.

Renewable Energy: Who's winning and how?

Here in Australia, states are stepping up to embrace the future of renewable energy. So who's doing the best?

In 2018 Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and South Australia are judged to be the leaders. Let's look at why:

Tasmania

Leading the nation with 87% renewable energy in 2017, Tasmania is an obvious front-runner.

Australian Capital Territory

The ACT has a goal of 100% renewable energy by 2020 - just two years from now - and look to be on track to get there. Their government is also providing battery grants to households to help store solar energy for later use.

South Australia

Already at 43% renewable energy, South Australia has the largest energy battery in the country and is planning more. The forecast is that they'll have about 73% within 2 years.

The sunshine state?

My home state of Queensland is listed as "catching up" with a 50% renewable energy target (for 2030). We have the nation's highest percentage of homes with solar, though this is more because of the great weather rather than any government action.

Other snippets

69 wind and solar plants are under construction in Australia right now - creating almost 10,000 jobs.

These projects will add seven times the capacity of the now-closed Hazelwood coal power station.

Of the 69 renewable energy projects, Queensland has the most with 20. (Vic 19, NSW 18)

There are now 26 suburbs where the majority of homes have solar. 19 of these suburbs are in Queensland.

Queensland and Victoria are home to 65% of renewable energy jobs

What's happening globally?

Last year more solar PV capacity was added than coal, natural gas and nuclear combined.

Almost three-quarters of new energy generation capacity is renewable.

Electricity generation from coal and gas fell for the fifth year in a row.

17 countries generated more than 90% of their electricity with renewable energy.

Find out more

You can see the Climate Council's full scorecard and report to get all and details.

Containers for Change - everything you need to know

Queensland's Container refund scheme starts 1 November. It's great for the planet, for people and for community groups. Here's why.

Quick stats

3 billion containers are used in Queensland each year. They make up 23% of our waste. Even with kerbside recycling, the majority end up as litter or in landfill.

We recycle only about 30% of our containers. In South Australia (who've had a container deposit scheme for years) the rate is 80%.

Clearly a cash-for-containers scheme is a good idea. Queensland's will be called Containers for Change.

What's the deal?

From 1 November there will be 250 refund points (see the map) where you can receive 10 cents for every eligible container - including aluminium cans, glass bottles, plastic bottles and some drink cartons.

Reverse vending machines

Some refund points will be reverse vending machines - like the demo one I showed earlier (see the video). These are literally what they sound like - you give a container and get money. Each container has its barcode scanned. If the barcode matches an eligible container you get paid.

Depots and drop off points

There will also be places you can take containers to and drop them off. The advantage of these (other than not having to feeding all your containers into a machine) is that even if the aluminium cans are squashed, and the barcode isn't readable, they are still accepted.

How does it work for community groups?

After litter reduction and more recycling, the third aim of the scheme is to help community groups. People can donate their containers to the local sports club, scouts, church or school - and that organisation can receive the refund.

This can be done by physically donating the container or by a virtual donation. Either way, the first step for a community group is to register and get an ID number (this is how you get paid).

Virtual donations

Publicise your ID number through your community group. When your members return their containers they can quote the community group's ID number and the refund is paid to the community group's bank account.

Physical donations

In this case people donate the actual containers at your scout hall, soccer club or church hall. Somebody from the group can return them in bulk to a refund point. Again, they quote the community group's ID number and the refund goes to the group's bank account.

At my local school they've got small wheelie-bins bins ready to go. (You can get the logos and everything when you join).

The logistics of this depend on how big your operation will be. Many refund points will be able to give you a large bag for collecting your containers, and a tag with your group's ID. If you're thinking bigger than that you may want to get a lockable cage where people can drop off containers any time of the day.

If your group is having a big event, it may be a good idea to contact your local refund point in advance and they may be able to help.

So what are the next steps?

Once you community group decides to do this, go online and register and promote you group's ID to your members.

Then, if you want to do physical collection, get in touch with you local refund point.

Any questions, just pop them in the comments below.

Happy recycling and happy fundraising.

PS. This information is based on the seminar by ContainerExchange - the organisation running the scheme. For further details go to Containers for Change or to ContainerExchange.

Do bad governments hide bad news?

If there's anything worse than a government failing to cut pollution, it's a government covering up the failure.

People in the media have noticed a pattern in the way Australia's government releases the national emissions data.

It's very slow and it seems to be released at a time when it will get little attention. Mostly it's late on a Friday afternoon - too late for the news bulletin. Or just before the biggest sports weekend of the year.

One year they even did it on Christmas Eve.

Why is it so?

Paul Barry reckons it's deliberate. To avoid the government getting awkward questions about why emissions increasing when urgent reductions are needed. Questions like how on Earth Australia can even reach our (rather weak) goal of 26% less pollution by 2030 while pollution is rising.

The government says that ministers "considers briefs for a period of time". But for those periods of time to always end late friday - or on Christmas Eve is a staggering coincidence.

Or maybe not.