What's with these power price rises?

There's been a lot of talk about power price rises here in Australia. So what's causing it?

Short answer: Old coal-fired power stations that keep breaking down.

In detailed terms, here's a chart from finance reporter Elysse Morgan, showing the power output of AGL's coal-fired power stations over the last month or so.

The purple line at the top is what they would normally be producing - if the stations were all functional, and not having "unplanned outages". The difference is around a million homes.

Of course the electricity grid normally makes up for this shortfall by having gas-fired power stations operate as a backup. But this is quite expensive. Perhaps because the shortage is so large. Perhaps because the gas price (globally) is so high at the moment. Perhaps a combination of the two.

The result is that energy costs more, as shown in this graph of energy prices in the states of Queensland (QLD) and Victoria (VIC).

Elysse Morgan points out that Western Australia (WA), as a gas-exporting state, requires companies to provide gas for WA first (at a fixed price).

As a sidenote she also points out that renewables like wind and solar also have a stable and low per-unit cost - as the power source is free.

Ah, if only we'd built more of that earlier. 

3 million Aussie solar homes

Australia has now passed the amazing milestone of 3 million solar homes. Even in 2020, around 370,000 homes got solar.

It seems like only yesterday that I was writing a post about Australia reaching 1 million homes.

Alan Kohler and climate change

Usually the finance guy on the news shows charts of interest rates, inflation, company performance and sharemarket movements. So it was a little bit surprising to see this last night.

It comes from the latest IPCC report. You can read more about that here and here. But the basics are that we are likely to exceed 1.5 degrees of warming (considered the upper limit of what would be a "viable" society) by 2030.

For Australia this means "fires are projected to get worse and more frequent, and fire seasons will last longer. In eastern Australia, if warming exceeds 2C, then droughts are projected to increase. Across southern Australia drought has already increased, and projections suggest that will worsen."

So why is this on the finance report?

I did some digging and finance journalist Alan Kohler has doing a fair bit of research in this area.

He wrote an article about Australian businesses that are taking advantage of the move to electric vehicles, and the massive drop in the cost of renewable energy.

He's also written an article titled Australia's solar tsunami to trigger coal collapse - explaining how inflexible coal-fired power stations are on the brink of being unprofitable and closing. That's another business story, similar to the way Netflix made Blockbuster unviable.

Business is about managing risks

More recently Alan Kohler has written about how Australia manages risk. When a vaccine has a 0.0011% chance of a side effect we take steps to avoid that risk. But when a country faces a risk (climate change) that is hundreds of times more likely we seem to do nothing.

He says that a "4 degree rise in the average global temperature would make large parts of the planet uninhabitable and lead to the total collapse of the banking system."

Even if we avoid that, a mere 2 degrees of warming (which is still quite likely) would mean "the banking system barely survives".

It seems that climate change information should be very important to the finance community. And all of us.

PS. Zooming in on that graph (and the current steep slope) it looks like we need to get serious about putting the brakes on pretty soon - if we're going to have any chance of keeping under 1.5 or even 2 degrees.

State of Play: who's winning the clean energy race

In the absence of meaningful action at a federal level, it's mostly up to Australian states to do the heavy lifting in the renewable energy area.

Here's the Climate Council's assessment of how those states are going.

Leaders

Since last year's list, South Australia has leapt to to the top of the list with most of their power coming from renewables and a 100% target for 2030.

The Australian Capital Territory has also overtaken Tasmania and looks set to hit 100% renewable energy in the new year.

At the other end

It's not just the time zones that sees Western Australian behind the other states. They've moved from last to second last place with an "aspirational" net-zero emissions target by 2050. That's nice but not much. I guess that's why they're still "at the starting blocks".

Here at home

My home state of Queensland wins the "most improved" with lots of solar being installed over the past year, but still not enough to reach the 2030 target of 50% renewable energy.

It's bizarre that the "sunshine state" has just 8.8% renewable energy (including hydropower) and only 5.6% from solar and wind.

Here's how each state does on renewable energy (light blue) and solar and win energy (darker shaded area).

Download the full report from the Climate Council.

Clean energy, cheap prices

Last night, Alan Kohler summed it up on ABC News:

Electricity prices are falling because of all the renewable energy being built.

It's common economic knowledge that when you increase supply of a product, the price goes down. But for some reason politicians continue to pretend it's the environment versus the economy. It's not.

If we build more clean energy, prices keep coming down and everyone can pay less for power. Sounds like a convenient solution!

Related posts

Powershop - switch and save - see how you can save by switching to a renewable-friendly electricity provider.

Are there jobs in renewable energy? - here's another way clean energy helps our economy.

Brisbane's 20 best signs (Global Climate March)

Today is a global climate "strike". Around the world people are gathering to support (perhaps even insist) on climate action.

The park was packed

In Brisbane today's event was the biggest the city has seen. So much so that the park could not hold all the people. Fortunately, the street had already been blocked off. People stood on the road and on the footpaths of adjacent blocks.

Let's get to the signs

I've always been a fan of people's creative signs for these events. Here are some of Brisbane's best.

Kids

With this being the last day of school term, there were lots of kids there (with their parent's permission) and a number of signs were about that.

Some signs featured the Dr Seuss character The Lorax.

Grandparents

Old people showed up for their kids grandkids ... and great grandkids.

Positive encouragement

Witty Signs

Some signs were quite clever, like this one from a university staff member (presumably the health faculty):

This one starts by saying "I like my planet the way I like my men..."

Frustration

Some were just frustrated with the government's lack of action.

That last one is a reference to the current prime minister saying the schoolkids shouldn't be speaking up for the future (being "activist").

What a wonderful world

Some just wanted to say what a wonderful thing the earth is.

Want more?

See some highlights from previous events - Schoolkids strikeof 2018 - I want some action - Scientists

Climate Change: The Facts - by David Attenborough

If you missed last night's ABC screening of Climate Change: The Facts here's the link to see it on iview.

There's an explanation of climate change, it's impacts and what we can do to reduce it. Being a David Attenborough documentary it also contains some amazing footage:

• Australian bats littered on the ground after a heatwave, (perhaps turn away at that point if you're an animal lover)
• Dashcam footage as a father and son driving through a bushfire to escape it - only to realise that was impossible, (their escape was quite miraculous)
• Flames coming out of ice. This was a demonstration of the quantity of ice-trapped methane in the permafrost. When this permafrost melts (due to climate change) this methane will be released and cause even more climate change. This is what's called a tipping point.

There's also amazing stats:

• British heatwaves are 30 times more likely than in the 70's.
• Greenland is losing ice at 5 times the rate that it was just 25 years ago.
• The US state of Louisiana is losing land the size of a football field every 45 mins - due to sea level rise - and already people have had to abandon their homes.

Sometimes our tendency is to avoid change even when it's necessary. It's important to remember that the "cost of action is dwarfed by the cost of inaction".

Some more David:
David Attenborough's Great Barrier Reef

Yes, Australian voters want climate action

Since the Australian election some have been worried that Australian voters seem unconcerned about climate change. However, ABC's Vote Compass shows the opposite.

While not many people changed the party they vote for, they are ready for (and expect) more climate action.

How much should we do?

The proportion of people saying we should do more has reached an all-time high. Also, the number of undecideds has decreased each election.

Cross-party support

Across the four biggest parties, each party's supporters want more action rather than less. The highest are Greens (99-0) and Labor (96-0) supporters. A bit further back are Coalition supporters (59-13) and One Nation supporters (40-34).

Whilst some parties seem opposed to more action, every party's supporters think we should be doing more.

What about policies?

Renewable energy is immensely popular with 86% of people saying there should be more of it.

The price on carbon emissions was abandoned by the current government. Yet still 68% of people agree with the Greens policy to bring it back.

Electric cars are also a popular idea with 72% saying that the government should do more to increase the number of electric cars in Australia.

What does it mean?

Despite the increasing desire for action on climate change, the votes of all the parties remained almost identical to the last election. Perhaps people are sticking with their preferred party, but expecting them to do more.

It's interesting that we seem to be in favour of policies that politicians seems less keen to introduce. Will this be something they notice and begin to act upon? Or could this possible be the effect of political donations by companies that profit from polluting?

Powershop - switch and save

We've recently switched our electricity provider to Powershop. I'm highly recommending it. Here are 8 reasons why it's a great choice.

Renewable energy makers

Whichever electricity retailer I choose, they're going to make a profit from me. I'd prefer that profit to go to a good company. Powershop is owned by Meridian Energy, which also makes renewable energy. That's the kind of company I like to support.

Greenest electricity provider

The Green Electricity Guide ranks electricity companies on their green credentials. This includes emissions from power stations they own, their policy positions on renewable energy and fossil fuels, their deals for solar consumers, and their promotion of energy efficiency.

Powershop tops the list every year and is one of only two companies with a 5-star rating.

Cheaper Electricity

Electricity costs are made up of two parts - the daily 'supply charge' and the 'usage rate'. Both of these are cheaper than our previous provider. Also, their pay-on-time discount applies to both areas. Other providers generally offer their discount only on the usage charge part of the bill.

To compare to your current provider, check out energymadeeasy.gov.au.

Extra "David-discount"

You won't see much advertising for Powershop. Instead of paying for TV ads, they just give the money to customers. What a great way to do business!

If you sign up with my special link you'll get $75 credit and so will I.

Top-ups

Powershop also does billing better. You can top-up your credit at any time (like a prepaid phone or a public transport card). You get a discount for doing this. For example you can buy $100 credit for just $85.

Smaller bills

Powershop bills monthly rather than quarterly. (Yay!) Apart from making it easier to budget for, it's also less of a shock because each bill is around one-third what you are used to paying. Powershop also lets you know a few days ahead of time, so you have a chance to double-check you have enough credit to cover the bill.

What about my solar panels?

The Energy Made Easy site doesn't really cater for solar households. You might have to compare the rates to your current bill. Generally their solar rates are good (part of their great environment score). Here's the link to check rates for your area.

What do other customers think?

Powershop is big in Victoria (their first state). Amongst its customers there it rates 5-stars in most categories and out-rates the major retailers by quite a margin.

Are there any negatives?

I know of only two possible negatives. The greenpower option is slightly more expensive (at least compared to my previous provider). However, as 100% Greenpower customers we found this small extra cost was offset by Powershop's great base prices. Even with our 100% Greenpower the overall cost was practically identical. The sign-on bonus was waaay more than the tiny difference in cost. We changed mostly to support a renewable energy company with better business practice. If you're not a purchaser of Greenpower, then you should have lower cost, and a sign-on bonus.

The only other thing is that your very first bill may be based on estimated usage. Powershop bills monthly, but physical readings are only done quarterly. So your first bill may seem bit low or high. This will even out once they've done a physical reading. Or you can choose to enter your own DIY meter readings via the website.

In summary

If you're looking for the cheapest deal, Powershop's a great choice.

If you're looking for the greenest electricity company, Powershop's a great choice.

If you'd like more for the solar power you export, Powershop's a great choice.

If you'd like to receive a sign-on bonus, Powershop's a great choice.

Here's my special link to get your $75 bonus credit.

Climate for Change

When the media and politics talk climate change there's we hear a lot about renewable energy versus coal. Fair enough, electricity does account for 34% of our country's emissions.

But what about the rest? ABC's Four Corners program did this documentary about Australia's emissions, where we are compared to the rest of the world, and what can be done to improve.

Here is my quick summary. You can also watch it online, or read the transcript.

Transport

19% of emissions
Transport emissions are growing because our population is growing and our demand for transport is increasing. Our vehicles are improving but not quickly enough to match our increased use.

We currently have no emission standard on vehicles. In the USA and Europe vehicles are more efficient and cheaper to run.

Some countries have already started phasing out petrol and diesel cars in favour of electric vehicles. Norway is the leader with 31% of new cars being electric. In Australia it's 0.2%.

Even in the UK, there are 29 affordable models of electric cars (under 60,000 AUD). Here in Australia we have 4.

Industry

30% of emissions
Australia is the world biggest exporter of natural gas (LNG). If the countries that buy this gas are burning it instead of coal, that's good for world emissions. But Australia's emissions are higher because of the energy used to extract, liquefy and transport it.

The industry's rate of improvement in energy use and carbon intensity is at the bottom of world standards. Why?

Australia has a 'baseline' system where big polluters are each given an emissions cap. If they exceed that cap they are penalised - at least in theory. One-third of big polluters have been allowed increase their cap. Emissions from these polluters is up 12% in the last four years.

The rules around changing the cap we changed last month. Bizarrely, they make increasing the pollution cap even easier.

Agriculture

15% of emissions
Agricultural emissions is usually a hard area to find reductions. There are a lot of methane emissions from livestock. However, Australia's science agency CSIRO has discovered a natural feed-additive that reduces livestock emissions to almost zero.

Electricity

34% of emissions
Electricity emissions are trending down as renewables replace coal and gas. Transgrid, the network operator in NSW say the last time they connected a coal power station to the grid was 1992. Wind and solar are very affordable now.

French company Neoen started in Australia in 2012, and now have built half their global capacity here. They say a long term goal is needed and that such a goal is not a burden but a certainty for investors.

At the moment 2/3 of Australia's power still comes from coal. These power stations are old and due to close. We need to start soon and do so in an orderly fashion, so that they don't all close at once.

Current Policies

The current government buys carbon reductions by giving money to projects that reduce emissions. Sounds good in theory, but there are two issues.

As discussed earlier, companies are being allowed increase their pollution so this "emissions reduction fund" is not reducing emissions, just trying to make up for industry's increase.

Secondly, some projects would still occur without the government funding. So we're spending money on projects that would happen anyway.

In short we're spending money we don't have to spend and emissions aren't reducing.

International commitments

So how will we meet our Paris target of a 26% reduction in emissions? The current government is looking to use "credits" from a previous time period where we met our targets.

One of the experts on the documentary said it's like failing your year 12 exams and trying to increase your mark because you got excellent results in year 8.

Also the Paris meeting was held in 2015. Next year all the nations gather again and are expected to improve their targets. The way we're going we can hardly reach the weak targets we currently have.

Conclusion

Despite Australia doing so poorly at the moment, there is much hope when we see what is possible. One of the experts has the opinion that "when the debate is over, the economy and people will move forward and take a lot of advantage". I'm looking forward to that.

Renewable Energy: Who's winning and how?

Here in Australia, states are stepping up to embrace the future of renewable energy. So who's doing the best?

In 2018 Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and South Australia are judged to be the leaders. Let's look at why:

Tasmania

Leading the nation with 87% renewable energy in 2017, Tasmania is an obvious front-runner.

Australian Capital Territory

The ACT has a goal of 100% renewable energy by 2020 - just two years from now - and look to be on track to get there. Their government is also providing battery grants to households to help store solar energy for later use.

South Australia

Already at 43% renewable energy, South Australia has the largest energy battery in the country and is planning more. The forecast is that they'll have about 73% within 2 years.

The sunshine state?

My home state of Queensland is listed as "catching up" with a 50% renewable energy target (for 2030). We have the nation's highest percentage of homes with solar, though this is more because of the great weather rather than any government action.

Other snippets

69 wind and solar plants are under construction in Australia right now - creating almost 10,000 jobs.

These projects will add seven times the capacity of the now-closed Hazelwood coal power station.

Of the 69 renewable energy projects, Queensland has the most with 20. (Vic 19, NSW 18)

There are now 26 suburbs where the majority of homes have solar. 19 of these suburbs are in Queensland.

Queensland and Victoria are home to 65% of renewable energy jobs

What's happening globally?

Last year more solar PV capacity was added than coal, natural gas and nuclear combined.

Almost three-quarters of new energy generation capacity is renewable.

Electricity generation from coal and gas fell for the fifth year in a row.

17 countries generated more than 90% of their electricity with renewable energy.

Find out more

You can see the Climate Council's full scorecard and report to get all and details.

What Aussies think about climate change

This year's Climate of the Nation survey (a great name for people's opinions around climate change) has some very interesting - and some surprising results.

Lots of concern

When asked if they we concerned about climate change and its impact of drought, the Great Barrier Reef and bushfires around three-quarters said yes.

Fewer deniers

At the other end of the scale there's a shrinking number of people do don't even agree the climate change is happening. The vast majority of Aussies accept that it is happening. The results are shown by which party the people vote for.

Even for parties that have non-scientific views, their supporters seem to be accepting the climate science.

Favourite power

People were asked their 3 favourite energy sources. The top 3 were all renewable resources and solar was the clear favourite.

What to do about coal?

49% say we should stop building any new coal mines or expanding any existing ones. Only 20% disagree with this view.

How quickly should coal go?

About two-thirds of Aussies think we should stop using coal with 20 years. More than a third reckon it should be within 10 years.

Coal industry less important than we think

Aussies were asked how many people coal employs. Those who answered overestimated by a factor of more than 25. The jobs in coal are 25 times smaller than we think.

The same goes for money. When asked how much coal contributes to Australia's GDP, people's average estimate was 10.9%. It's not even a tenth of that. The true answer is just one percent.

While the coal industry makes some noise, the reality is that it's just not worth as much as we may think.

Who should pay the bill?

59% of people support a levy on fossil fuel exports to help the community prepare and protect from the consequences of climate change. Only 19%
oppose this idea.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, this idea is even more popular among younger people - those expected to have to live with the consequences for longer.

Overall it's good news that Australians want to take action on climate change. Hopefully politicians can reflect this desire in their actions.

PS. You can download the full Climate of the Nation 2018.